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The Big Picture: Week 18 NFL Playoff Scenarios

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The end of the regular season of the NFL is here. Next week we will be talking about which teams are getting ready for the NFL draft and the top 10 order and which teams will be preparing for the first playoff games. So here’s a guide of the seeding and who are already in and who is fighting for which seed.

AFC

Kansas City Chiefs (15-1)

Clinched AFC West; Clinched 1st seed

Week 18 Matchup: Denver Broncos

The Chiefs have clinched the number one seed and the only bye of the AFC teams. So they can and judging by their injuries this season will be resting key starters. That bodes well if you are a Denver Broncos fan as they need this win to get the final wildcard spot of the AFC.

Buffalo Bills (13-3)

Clinched AFC East; Clinch 2nd seed

Week 18 Matchup: New England Patriots

The Bills have clinched their division about a month ago but their win against the Jets clinched the number two seed for the Bills. As the highest AFC seed in the wildcard weekend, they are awaiting either the Broncos, Bengals, or their AFC East rival Miami Dolphins. This game in week 18 is meaningless for the Bills but for the New England Patriots if they lose this game they will have the very first pick of the 2025 Draft in April.

Baltimore Ravens (11-5)

Clinched playoffs; currently 3rd seed

Week 18 Matchup: Cleveland Browns

The Ravens host their AFC North rival Browns who they lost to already this year. The Ravens are on a hot 4 game winning streak and one more win and they would win the division in back-to-back seasons. They already have clinched a playoff spot so even if they lost they would already have their ticket punched. If they were to get swept this season by the Cleveland Browns they could fall all the way to the 5th seed in the playoffs and give the Pittsburgh Steelers a chance to win the division against the Cincinnati Bengals

Houston Texans (9-7)

Clinched AFC South and 4th seed

Week 18 Matchup: Tennessee Titans

Another meaningless week 18 game besides for draft spots. The Tennesse Titans stand to gain a shot at a top pick in the draft with a loss. The Texans have already clinched the AFC South and are locked into the 4th spot to play against either the Baltimore Ravens or the Pittsburgh Steelers next weekend.

WILDCARD TEAMS

Pittsburgh Steelers (10-6)

Clinched a playoff spot; currently 5th seed

Could move to the 3rd seed with Ravens loss vs Browns AND win vs Bengals

Week 18 matchup: Cincinnati Bengals

The Steelers have gone on a three-game losing streak and have fell from the top spot of the AFC North to the 5th seed. The Steelers could know what position they are in by the start time of their matchup against the Bengals. If the Ravens beat the Browns the Steelers are locked into the 5th seed with a win against the Bengals. The way their offense has looked I would still get at least a half of play out of my starters whether Baltimore wins or not. They could rest to get ready for their matchup against the Texans for wildcard weekend or be on the road to Baltimore as the 6th seed. If Baltimore stumbles, the Steelers could destroy two birds with one heave of a stone by beating the Bengals. They would clinch the AFC North AND eliminate the Bengals from the playoffs.

Los Angeles Chargers (10-6)

Clinched playoffs; currently the 6th seed

Week 18 Matchup: Las Vegas Raiders

Currently the 6th seed in the AFC, The Chargers could open the playoffs in the road to Baltimore if the Steelers and Ravens win. If the Steelers lose this could open up a path for the Chargers to win and go to Houston for wildcard weekend. If the Ravens lose, the Chargers have a chance to open up in Pittsburgh as well if the Steelers win the AFC North.

BATTLE FOR THE 7th and FINAL PLAYOFF SPOT IN THE AFC

Denver Broncos (9-7)

Currently the 7th seed

Week 18 matchup: Kansas City Chiefs

The Broncos lost a heartbreaker last Saturday against the Bengals when they could have clinched a playoff spot and eliminated the Bengals and Dolphins. Now this week they get a mulligan and need to win against the Kansas City Chiefs. Very simply put it’s a win and in-game for the Broncos against a team that will be resting their starters and aren’t playing for anything. If they lose, they are out of the playoffs unless the Miami Dolphins and the Cincinnati Bengals both lose on Sunday. They will not be able to win any other position in the playoffs other than the 7th seed so they would immediately be sent to Buffalo for their first playoff game.

Miami Dolphins (9-8)

Need Broncos loss vs Chiefs AND Win vs Jets

Week 18 matchup: New York Jets

This game is dependent on the results of the Chiefs-Broncos matchup but if Denver were to lose the game that opens up a playoff spot for the Miami Dolphins if they beat the New York Jets. They will not know their fate before game time as the Broncos game and their game will be on simultaneously.

Cincinnati Bengals (8-8)

Need Broncos loss vs Chiefs AND Dolphins loss vs Jets AND win vs Steelers

Week 18 matchup: Pittsburgh Steelers

The Bengals are playing well to end the season. One of the most explosive offenses in the league and we may not see them again after this week. This is because they need to win and get a lot of help. They need the Broncos to lose and the Dolphins to lose in order to make the playoffs. They are facing a Steelers team that has been reeling and will need to win to have a shot at winning the division. If the Bengals have everything fall their way they will win the 7th seed and open up on the road against the Bills.

NFC

Detroit Lions (14-2)

Clinched playoffs; Currently the 1st seed

Week 18 Matchup: Minnesota Vikings

The Lions are in the pole position of winning the NFC and all they have to do is win this game against the Lions. The winner of the matchup in week 18 will be for the division as well as a bye week while the loser would be on the road to the winner of the NFC South, either Tampa or Atlanta. With a loss the Vikings would be the 5th seed in the playoffs.

Philadelphia Eagles (13-3)

Clinched NFC East; currently the 2nd seed

Week 18 Matchup: New York Giants

Besides getting the single-season rushing record for Saquon Barkley this game could be potentially for nothing and they would have to play either the Packers or the Commanders in wildcard weekend depending on which one gets the last wildcard spot. If the Commanders win, the Eagles would get a rematch of game 1 against the Packers. If the Commanders lose and the Packers win, then the Eagles would get to play the Commanders for the third time this season.  

Los Angeles Rams (10-6)

Clinched NFC West; clinched the 3rd seed

Week 18: Seattle Seahawks

The Rams clinched the NFC West last weekend and doused the playoff chances of the inconsistent all year Seattle Seahawks. They are locked into the 3rd seed and would face either the Commanders or the Packers depending on who the 6 seed is.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-7)

Currently 4th seed

Week 18 matchup: New Orleans Saints

Tampa Bay has a simple path to winning the NFC South. Win against the New Orleans Saints. Baker Mayfield and Mike Evans have been on fire together this year. And they would be host to either the Lions or the Vikings whoever finishes second in the NFC North. If they were to drop this week’s contest then they would need the Panthers to win against the Atlanta Falcons.

WILDCARD TEAMS

Minnesota Vikings (14-2)

Clinched playoffs; Currently the 5th seed

Week 18 Matchup: Detroit Lions

The Lions are in the pole position of winning the NFC and all they have to do is win this game against the Vikings. The Vikings have a similar path. Win this game and they win the NFC’s only playoff bye at number 1 and the NFC North crown. If they lose they are on the road to the NFC South’s winner, either Atlanta or Tampa.

Washington Commanders (11-5)

Clinched playoffs; Currently the 6th seed

Week 18 Matchup: Dallas Cowboys

Jayden Daniels in clinching a playoff spot also clinched pretty much the offensive rookie of the year. The Commanders are back in the playoffs one year post Dan Snyder selling the team. With a win they lock in the 6th seed and play in Los Angeles against the Rams.  If they were to lose to the Cowboys, they could be on the road to Philadelphia as the 7th seed if Green Bay were to win.

Green Bay Packers (11-5)

Clinched playoffs, currently the 7th seed

Week 18 matchup: Chicago Bears

The Packers are playing the Bears after a loss to the Vikings in week 17. If the Commanders win then the Packers are headed to Philadelphia regardless of the outcome of their matchup. If the Commanders lost to the Cowboys, the Packers could become the 6th seed and they would matchup against the Rams in Los Angeles.

ONE FINAL HOPE

Atlanta Falcons (8-8)

Need a Buccaneers loss vs Saints AND win vs Panthers

If the Buccaneers win then the Falcons are eliminated from playoff contention. But if the Buccaneers lost to the New Orleans Saints the Falcons would have to win against Carolina to take the NFC South. It’s an outside chance that they win the division but the only NFC playoff spot still open is for the NFC South winner at number 4.

Whoever wins the NFC North will get a bye week. Whoever loses the matchup between the Lions and the Vikings would be on the road to Atlanta if they were to get in.

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